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Al-Humaidi, H M (2016) Construction Projects Bid or Not Bid Approach Using the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity FTOPSIS Method. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Bhaumik, P K (2016) Developing and Using a New Family of Project S-Curves Using Early and Late Shape Parameters. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Cheng, E W L (2016) Intentions to Form Project Partnering in Hong Kong: Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Choi, Y S, Lim, I, Kim, T, Cho, H and Kang, K (2016) Case Study of the Core Structure Succeeding Method for Tall Building Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Chong, D, Wang, Y, Chen, L and Yu, B (2016) Modeling and Validation of Energy Consumption in Asphalt Mixture Production. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Doan, D T and Chinda, T (2016) Modeling Construction and Demolition Waste Recycling Program in Bangkok: Benefit and Cost Analysis. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Elbarkouky, M M G, Fayek, A R, Siraj, N B and Sadeghi, N (2016) Fuzzy Arithmetic Risk Analysis Approach to Determine Construction Project Contingency. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Firouzi, A, Yang, W and Li, C (2016) Prediction of Total Cost of Construction Project with Dependent Cost Items. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Probability distribution; Cost items; Monte Carlo simulation; Copula; Dependence structure; Cost and schedule;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001194
- Abstract:
Construction projects are typically carried out in highly uncertain environments with the risk of cost and time overruns, and subsequent disputes between stakeholders. One of common risk factors is that most cost items of a project are dependent random variables. Thus, correlations between basic cost items need to be considered in predicting the total cost of the project. This paper intends to propose a generic copula-based Monte Carlo simulation method for prediction of construction projects’ total costs with dependent cost items. An algorithm to generate the joint probability distribution function of correlated cost items is developed and two examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of copulas in modeling construction costs as random variables. A merit of the proposed method is that it not only can incorporate all different types of distributions in one framework, but it also captures the best dependence structure between variables. This paper finds that different dependence structures can lead to different probability distributions of total cost. It also finds that the existing goodness of fit tests can be employed in choosing the best performing copula. The paper concludes that the copula-based Monte Carlo simulation method can predict total cost of construction projects with reasonable accuracy.
Hassan, M E, Kandil, A, Senouci, A and Al-Derham, H (2016) Organizational Behavior Attributes and Sustainable Construction Adoption: An Econometric Analysis Using Data from Qatar. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Hyari, K H, Tarawneh, Z S and Katkhuda, H N (2016) Detection Model for Unbalanced Pricing in Construction Projects: A Risk-Based Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Li, S, Cai, H and Kamat, V R (2016) Integrating Natural Language Processing and Spatial Reasoning for Utility Compliance Checking. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
M. Said, H M and Lucko, G (2016) Float Types in Construction Spatial Scheduling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Namian, M, Albert, A, Zuluaga, C M and Behm, M (2016) Role of Safety Training: Impact on Hazard Recognition and Safety Risk Perception. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Patel, D A, Kikani, K D and Jha, K N (2016) Hazard Assessment Using Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relations Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Pishdad-Bozorgi, P, de la Garza, J M and Austin, R B (2016) Readiness Assessment for Flash Tracking. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).
Sadeghi, N, Fayek, A R and Gerami Seresht, N (2016) A Fuzzy Discrete Event Simulation Framework for Construction Applications: Improving the Simulation Time Advancement. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12).